Is Saakashvili smarter than we think?

It is pretty clear that Georgia fired the first shot but then Russia overreacted. Until now I have been thinking that President Saakashvili has acted the fool by allowing himself to be goaded into a war by Russia. After all, who did not know that Russia could easily crush Georgia and then use the war to gain some of its strategic objectives in the country. But what if Saakashvili wanted the Russians to overreact?

Look where we are now. Robert Kagan presents us with a new image of the world that demands the containment of Russia.

Historians will come to view Aug. 8, 2008, as a turning point no less significant than Nov. 9, 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell. Russia’s attack on sovereign Georgian territory marked the official return of history, indeed to an almost 19th-century style of great-power competition, complete with virulent nationalisms, battles for resources, struggles over spheres of influence and territory, and even—though it shocks our 21st-century sensibilities—the use of military power to obtain geopolitical objectives.

And Kagan has been interviewed by All Things Considered and the Charlie Rose Show, in both cases with nobody pushing back. Meanwhile, McCain has stated,

We should immediately call a meeting of the North Atlantic Council to assess Georgia’s security and review measures NATO can take to contribute to stabilizing this very dangerous situation.

McCain sees a bipolar situation emerging, in which NATO arrays itself against Russia. What he says matters, even if there are some questions about his credibility on the issue.

Like Russia’s reaction to Saakashvili’s move in South Ossetia, these ideological responses are not surprising; however, this correspondence of ideology and analysis has raised some gnawing questions in my mind. What if it was not Russia but Saakashvili who set the trap? What if he wanted Russia to overplay its hand, which until today it seemed intent on doing? Then voices in NATO would have grown louder for the integration of Georgia into its ranks. It still might happen. Then who got played? Russia and NATO both.

I am not saying that this is what happened. But it is certainly an idea worth considering.